| Current Conditions | ||
| Temp |  | 14.1 C |
| RH | | 29 % |
| Wind | | ESE 12 mph |
| Road | | Open |
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 144 FXHW60 PHFO 191936 AFDHFO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 1000 AM HST WED JUN 19 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A SURFACE RIDGE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE STATE WILL DRIVE MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK. A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME RAINFALL PATTERN WILL FOCUS MODEST RAINFALL OVER WINDWARD SLOPES OF ALL ISLANDS...WHILE LEEWARD BIG ISLAND SLOPES SEE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS. && .DISCUSSION... MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL HOLD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... WITH LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS SETTLING IN FOR THE WEEKEND. A SURFACE RIDGE ABOUT 550 MILES NORTH OF THE ISLANDS IS DRIVING THE TRADE WINDS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST IS WEAKENING THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY...AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN BUOYS 51101 AND 51003 HAS DECLINED BY NEARLY 1 MB SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THE FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE STATE A LITTLE MORE AND CAUSING TRADES TO DECLINE JUST A NOTCH. THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME LOCALLY BREEZY AGAIN. EXPECT A RATHER TYPICAL...TRADE WIND RAINFALL PATTERN TO FOCUS SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD SLOPES. RANDOM POCKETS OF SHOWERS MOVING ALONG THE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SHORT TERM TWEAKING OF THE POPS. MORNING SOUNDING AND RECENT AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGING MAINTAINING STABLE CONDITIONS WITH AN INVERSION MAINLY IN THE 7000 TO 8000 FOOT RANGE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER THE ISLANDS...BUT IT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HIGH CLOUDS EAST OF THE STATE. RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST DURING THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY DECREASING POPS. IN ADDITION...AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE WEST...WE COULD SEE PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING OVER THE ISLANDS. && .AVIATION... VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE. EXPECT ISOL MVFR CIGS OVER WINDWARD SLOPES AND POSSIBLY PHTO...MAINLY AT NIGHT. && .MARINE... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SCA...IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. WITH A SLIGHT DECLINE IN WINDS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM...WE WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP THE SCA FOR A DAY OR TWO. SCA CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE SAME AREAS ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT SWELLS ARE IN STORE. MODERATE AND ROUGH SURF WILL PERSIST ALONG WINDWARD SHORES. SMALL BACKGROUND SOUTH SWELLS WILL HOLD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...FOLLOWED BY A MODERATE SOUTHEAST SWELL FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHWEST SWELL IS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NORTH FACING SHORES WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE A SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 600 PM HST TODAY FOR MAALAEA BAY...THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND...AND THE PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS. && $$ WROE Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office |
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